New York Democrats’ Strategic Shift Post-Trump
ALBANY, New York — Deep blue states like New York tried to stymie Donald Trump’s first presidency, but Democrats who hold power here plan to avoid fighting with him as they kick off their legislative session on Wednesday.
There’s more appetite among Gov. Kathy Hochul and state lawmakers for seizing on his winning issues rather than confronting him, according to interviews with six legislators, political advisers and Democratic officials and a review of Hochul’s recent moves to embrace cost-of-living concerns.
What propelled Trump back to the White House — immigration, inflation and public safety — is expected to dominate the discourse in Albany. Hochul, a prominent surrogate for President Joe Biden right until he stepped aside, is heeding voters’ concerns over the cost of living with a new “affordability agenda” that included a photo-op grocery store trip and tax benefits aimed at families and low-income New Yorkers.
“This is a different time and it’s a different circumstance,” New York Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs said. “You have to read the room. Voters are not looking for either party to engage in personal attacks and the like. They’re looking for results.”
Challenges and Strategies Ahead
The stakes are especially high for Hochul, a moderate who struggles with low approval ratings and likely faces stiff competition when she runs for reelection next year. Democrats fear their party’s nearly 20-year hold on statewide power could come to an end after Trump made electoral gains in parts of New York City — including neighborhoods where working-class people of color live — even as they flipped three House seats.
Hochul, who represented a conservative western New York House district, has tread lightly on Trump. In the days after his November victory, she pledged at a joint news conference with Attorney General Letitia James, a Trump antagonist, to protect vulnerable New Yorkers — including LGBTQ+ people and undocumented immigrants — from Trump-backed policies.
Since then, Hochul has pivoted addressing cost concerns. She plans to send income-eligible New Yorkers a $500 rebate check and expand a child tax credit, which are contingent upon legislative approval. The governor is also expected to press for more support for child care programs in order to make them more affordable.
She has also unveiled a proposal to improve safety on mass transit after headline-grabbing incidents, including the murder of a homeless woman who was set on fire and a man was gravely injured when he was pushed on the tracks in front of an oncoming train. The governor wants to make it easier for people with severe mental illnesses to be involuntarily hospitalized, a prospect that is opposed by civil liberties advocates.
Tackling both the cost of living and crime, which polls have shown are gnawing concerns for New Yorkers, puts Hochul on firm, if not safe, ground with voters.
Looking Beyond Partisan Politics
“I did not need the November elections to tell me affordability and public safety are the number one and two concerns,” she told reporters recently. “I will do it independent of elections, it’s the right thing to do. People are hurting right now and we cannot be tone deaf as a party, as a nation or a state to those cries for help.”
Another test for left-leaning Democrats is coming this year when New York City Mayor Eric Adams, who is fighting corruption charges, runs for a second term. Adams, who has drawn support from Black and Orthodox Jewish voters, has called for lawmakers to further scale back liberal criminal justice laws and to eliminate income taxes for low-wage New Yorkers. Those proposals will have to get through a Legislature that includes three of his rivals for the Democratic nomination.
Despite his myriad problems, Adams’ agenda could fit with a broader political mood. Nationally, Democratic-dominated states have been willing to buck left-leaning policies: California voters in November rejected progressive aligned prosecutors and backed a ballot measure to increase retail theft penalties.
Democratic lawmakers say efforts to address high-profile, violent incidents on New York City subways are needed. They want to reduce the cost of living, which surged nationally after Covid and gave Trump a politically potent campaign argument. Top Democrats also know voters — half of whom believe the state is heading in the wrong direction — are restive and likely have no desire to watch a wrestling match with Trump.
Adapting to Changing Political Landscapes
New York Democrats may have little choice to react if the Trump administration tries to pressure the state to change so-called sanctuary policies. Trump’s inner circle has made little secret of their plans to move aggressively on the issue. Already, the president-elect’s designated immigration czar Tom Homan has not ruled out the possibility of blocking cars with New York plates from reentering the U.S. from Canada unless the state does not change a law that allows undocumented immigrants to receive driver’s licenses. Hochul called the possibility of blocking entry for New Yorkers “bizarre” and showed little interest in changing the law, which she had initially opposed as a county official 20 years ago.
“President Trump will enlist every federal power and coordinate with state authorities to institute the largest deportation operation of illegal criminals, drug dealers, and human traffickers in American history while simultaneously lowering costs for families,” incoming Trump press secretary Karoline Leavitt told POLITICO in a statement.
Immigration advocates have urged New York officials to strengthen protections for undocumented immigrants. Proposals include a measure meant to place limits on how much state law enforcement agencies can work with federal immigration authorities, a move that would build on an executive order signed by then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo in 2017. But calls from left-flank Democrats to “Trump proof” state laws ahead of the inauguration were dismissed. Fanciful ideas, like having New York secede and join Canada as proposed in jest by proposed Senate Finance Chair Liz Krueger, underscore the lack of options for anxious Democrats.
Lawmakers are not without ideas.
The Democratic-led Legislature for the initial weeks of the session is expected to focus on women’s reproductive policies and voting rights — issues that generally energize base voters.
Sidestepping Trump could be unavoidable as Republicans try to leverage voters’ concerns into electoral success. GOP lawmakers believe voters’ disparate problems are related: New York remains a high-tax state, housing costs are at a premium and the response to a migrant crisis cost taxpayers $2.9 billion last year. There’s a perception that New Yorkers, in effect, aren’t getting the bang for their buck, Senate Minority Leader Robert Ortt said.
“A lot of these issues — they’re not siloed,” he said. “There’s a connection to them in peoples’ daily lives and how people look at what’s going on in whether the state and city is headed in the right direction.”
Trump’s gains with New York voters did not translate to down-ballot success for the GOP. Republicans lost three House seats and scored a modest victory by breaking a Democratic supermajority in the state Senate. Still, Vice President Kamala Harris’ relatively narrow victory in New York — the smallest margin for a Democratic nominee since 1988 — has been considered a wake-up call.
“I’m not here to play defense, I’m not here to just have rhetorical debates on issues,” Democratic state Sen. Pat Fahy said. “I’m here to focus on the concrete.”
Hochul and the 150 members of the state Legislature do not face voters until 2026. But the New York City elections will loom over the proceedings in Albany.
Three of Adams’ Democratic primary opponents — state Sens. Jessica Ramos, Zellnor Myrie and Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani — will have a say over the mayor’s Albany agenda. Adams has called for the elimination of the city’s income tax for families with incomes between $31,503 and $46,350, a move that must be approved at the state level. He wants to further pare back a controversial law that limits when cash bail is required in criminal cases — an issue that Republicans have wielded in elections.
Hochul has signaled she would be open to the income tax proposal, a plan that would cost some $63 million. Changing the bail law — a measure that was signed into law by Cuomo, another potential rival for the incumbent mayor — is considered a heavier lift.
Many district attorneys in New York have railed against the reform and do not plan to lobby for changes to the bail law after Hochul made modest tweaks over the objections of left-leaning advocates in 2023. Instead, they will narrow their focus to changing a law governing how defense counsel obtains evidence in criminal cases.
“Realistically we’ve been working on building momentum to change the discovery laws,” Staten Island District Attorney Mike McMahon said. “We did get some changes to the bail law that made it a little bit better. We have to recognize that and not waste anybody’s time.”
Hochul has shown little desire to fight with her fellow Democrats. Since becoming governor in 2021 following Cuomo’s resignation amid sexual harassment charges that he’s denied, she has tried to take a conciliatory approach with legislators. The strategy has produced mixed results: state Senate Democrats rejected her nominee to lead the state’s top court, though she did win high-profile victories for a sweeping housing plan.
Some believe Hochul needs to take a more aggressive approach.
“She needs to get into a big public fight with the left wing of her party,” said Bill O’Reilly, a Republican strategist. “People need to see she’s not an extremist and they need to see she’s hearing them, hearing their woes.”
