Trump’s Strategy Debate: One or Two Bills for GOP Control?

If Donald Trump thought he was settling the GOP’s most important strategy dispute, Senate Republicans are not getting the message.

Mounting Confusion on Legislative Path

Less than 24 hours after Trump endorsed “one powerful bill” to carry his domestic policy agenda, a dozen senators said in interviews that the legislative path to its enactment remains an open question. It underscores the mounting confusion as Republicans feel pressure to show quick progress on border, energy and tax priorities.

Following Trump’s Lead, but Uncertain

The senators do agree on this: They’re ready to follow Trump’s lead. But they’re not convinced he is firmly planted yet in the one-bill camp.

Trump fueled the latest uncertainty Monday morning in an interview where he acknowledged he wasn’t necessarily wedded to any plan: “I’m open to either way as soon as we get something passed as quickly as possible,” he told radio host Hugh Hewitt.

Implications for Second Trump Term

It’s an early reality check heading into a second Trump term. The returning president’s decision-making isn’t exactly reliable, raising the risk that Republicans who presume to know what he wants might soon find themselves crosswise with his actual wishes. The stakes are huge, with the call over whether to move one bill or two having major implications for whether Trump can follow through on his campaign pledges before potentially losing unified GOP control of Washington in two years.

The Need for a Clear Plan

“I’ve heard the president say that he’s now on the ‘one’ side, but he doesn’t oppose the ‘two’ side,” said incoming Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), who will play a lead role in advancing tax cuts that Trump wants. “We still need a plan.”

Republicans on both ends of the Capitol had been privately hoping that Trump would publicly make a play call, ending the debate that has split the top two congressional leaders. Newly minted Senate Majority Leader John Thune wants two bills, allowing for a quick border-focused package, while Speaker Mike Johnson, mindful of uniting his tiny House majority, has thrown his weight behind just one.

Settling on a Plan Quickly

They need to settle on a plan as soon as possible: To unlock the budget reconciliation process needed to skirt a Democratic filibuster, Republicans have to quickly agree on the fiscal parameters of their agenda. And answering the one-bill-or-two question is a prerequisite for doing so.

Democrats looked on with amusement Monday, recalling their own internal turmoil over reconciliation in 2021 and 2022 — with a president in Joe Biden who sent clearer signals about what he wanted.

“Good luck,” said Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.). “I think that Donald Trump agrees with whoever he speaks with last, so that’s why you have the ‘one bill, two bills’ [debate]. … If you don’t know if you’re gonna go for one package or two, you can’t really start negotiations.”

House First or Senate First?

Some Senate Republicans insist the House should be the first to act anyway, given the House GOP’s struggles to come together last Congress, when they had a high-water mark of 222 seats. Now, Johnson will have no more than 220 votes at full strength, with one vacancy already and two others anticipated after Trump’s inauguration.

“This is going to start in the House, because we’re going to be focused on nominations,” said Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah), who served in the House until just last week. “On the other hand, if they can’t get it done, then we’ll take a look at another way.”

Tuberville added: “I’m for whatever the House can get done. We’ve got nothing to say about it. …[But] we’ve got to get it done pretty quickly.”

Unity Behind Trump’s Decision

If Trump settles definitively on one large bill, several GOP senators told POLITICO on Monday they will go along with that plan. While there are myriad looming fights over the specifics of the bill — including Trump’s suggestion Sunday that tariffs could help pay for it — the conference is largely deferring to him on the topline decisions.

“We just need to all get on the same page. And I think now that President Trump has expressed a preference for one bill, that’s where I expect us to go,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said.

Yet some senators are continuing to argue for a two-bill approach. They include such Trump allies as Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who said he still wants border-related legislation done first, and incoming Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who plays a key role as a gatekeeper to the reconciliation process.

“The threat levels I see, I think we would be smart to increase military spending and give the money Trump needs to deport people and secure the border early on, and I just think the national security implications of delay are pretty significant,” Graham said.

Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), the No. 2 GOP leader, said he, too, still saw the wisdom in a two-bill approach: “You secure the border, that makes this president happy, that makes the base happy.” But he said Republican senators are “likely going to meet with [Trump] relatively shortly” to discuss things further. Two people familiar with the planning, granted anonymity to discuss a private meeting, said that Senate Republicans are expected to meet with Trump on Wednesday.

Caught uncomfortably in the middle of it all is Thune, who officially became GOP leader last week and has had a bumpy relationship with Trump in the past.

Thune last month became the first prominent Republican to sketch out a blueprint for enacting the GOP policy agenda. During a closed-door retreat last month, he told his members they would pursue one quick bill focusing on the border, defense and energy, saving the trickier subject of taxes for a subsequent bill.

Still, Thune and Trump have spoken regularly as of late, including about their reconciliation approach. Speaking to Hewitt on Monday, Trump paid heed to the Senate leader even as he backed Johnson’s plan for now: “We have a lot of respect for Sen. Thune, as you know. He may have a little bit of a different view.”

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), a member of leadership, spoke for many of her GOP colleagues in saying she could back a one- or two-bill approach — and prefers above all something that can pass.

“It’s become clear that the conversation’s evolving,” she said. “And so, I would say, I’m sure Thune will be on board with the president, I would imagine. But I don’t know.”