After Tuesday night’s elections, Republicans are starting to worry that the shock and awe of President Donald Trump’s second term will haunt them in the 2026 midterms.
Inside the GOP, there is a growing sense that the party should get back to basics and focus on the pocketbook issues that many voters sent them to Washington to address. There’s internal disagreement about the effects of Trump’s new tariffs announced on Wednesday. Some say they will ultimately lead to reviving American manufacturing — but even many of the president’s allies fear they could drive up prices and potentially crash the economy.
Republican Anxiety and Strategy
The Republican anxiety comes in the wake of a landslide defeat in a Wisconsin Supreme Court race and double-digit underperformance in two Florida special elections. Both reverberated across the party on Wednesday, as some Republican elected officials and strategists called for Trump and his billionaire adviser Elon Musk to adopt a more cautious approach to governing.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), one of the most vulnerable GOP senators facing reelection next year, said in an interview that Republicans must be “smart and measured” otherwise they risk a major backlash at the polls.
“What we don’t want to do is overreach,” said Tillis. “We’ve got to be careful not to do the same thing. And I think that these elections are going to be proxies, or almost like weather devices for figuring out what kind of storm we’re going to be up against next year.”
Brian Reisinger, a former GOP strategist and rural policy expert, said Republicans running in battleground races next year must pay attention to Tuesday’s disappointing results and zero in on bread-and-butter issues.
Economic Concerns and Presidential Influence
“This is as clear a sign as you’re going to get — ringing like a bell — that they have to talk about addressing economic frustration and they have to show they have a plan for it,” he said.
Inside the White House, however, officials have been shaking off the margins of the Tuesday night election. In the view of Trump’s team, the Wisconsin state Supreme Court race was never close, Republican Rep.-elect Randy Fine was a weak candidate who won against a strong Democrat in Josh Weil, and the other Florida seat previously held by former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) was never in jeopardy, according to two people close to the White House who were granted anonymity to share private conversations.
“President Trump is the only Republican in nearly 40 years to destroy the Democrats’ blue wall and it’s embarrassing to see them spike the football after their massive defeat in November,” said White House spokesperson Harrison Fields.
Trade Policies and Public Opinion
While many of the president’s allies are sympathetic to his argument that the tariffs will encourage companies to invest in domestic manufacturing and production, they fear that imposing new trade barriers will cause short-term economic harm, drive up prices, potentially throw the U.S. into a recession, and jeopardize Republicans’ chances of hanging onto control of Congress in the midterms.
Just four in 10 voters view Trump’s handling the economy and trade favorably, according to an AP-NORC poll conducted in late March.
Democratic Pressure and Messaging
Democrats need to flip only a few seats to win the majority in the House. Their overperformance in Florida — and the Democratic apparatus’ success running an anti-Musk campaign in Wisconsin — left Democratic operatives increasingly bullish about using Musk as a midterm-messaging bogeyman.
“As long as he’s there using a chainsaw to all the programs that people back home rely on and need to make ends meet, of course we’re going to make him a central character,” Rep. Lori Trahan (D-Mass.), a member of House leadership, said in an interview.
Republican Responses and Future Outlook
But some Republican House members said they were not shocked by the Tuesday results. And there was little consensus within the party on whether Musk was uniquely to blame. Trump has even told his inner circle that the tech billionaire’s role will be stepping back soon.
With reporting from Ally Mutnick, Lisa Kashinsky and Nicholas Wu.
