MONTREAL — Six weeks into his political career, Mark Carney is on a clear path to becoming Canada’s prime minister. In back-to-back debates in Montreal this week, the globetrotting central banker made the case that with Donald Trump back in the White House what Canada needs most is a crisis manager.
“To get through it, we have to rebuild our economy, and that requires big changes,” Carney said Tuesday night — a nod to his work as Bank of Canada governor during the 2008 financial crash. “I know how to manage a crisis. I know how to build strong economies.”
The Political Landscape
Polls suggest Carney has a commanding lead in the race to replace Justin Trudeau at the helm of Canada’s Liberal Party, a win that would also make him prime minister — if perhaps only briefly.
One of Carney’s first decisions could be whether to call a snap election in the middle of a tariff war before rival parties in the House have a chance to bring down the minority government.
The stakes for Canada could not be higher, especially given the unpredictability of Trump.
Challengers and Strategies
Andrew Furey, the premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, sounded off on the state of play Tuesday as he announced his surprise exit from office.
“I mean it’s clear, right? The guy’s cracked,” Furey told reporters. “He wakes up one morning and says something — water, cars. Tomorrow it’s going to be tuna, who knows?”
For Canada’s Conservatives, Carney’s ascent seems a sure thing.
The opposition party, led by anti-Trudeau evangelist Pierre Poilievre, has watched a massive polling lead shrink dramatically since the start of 2025. Voters could be responding to multiple variables: Trudeau’s decision to step aside, the contest to elect his successor, and a wave of patriotism fueled by Trump’s tariff threats and belligerent rhetoric aimed north.
Analysis and Forecasts
Poilievre’s team has been unloading attack ads. During a recent Ottawa rally, Poilievre name-checked Carney nearly two dozen times. The party has been firing off emails designed to reduce their foe to a moniker, “Carbon Tax Carney.”
It’s all a taster of the campaign ahead.
Carney took some hits during Tuesday night’s English debate, but nothing like what he’ll face against Poilievre.
Carney’s campaign is focused primarily on economic growth — a meat and potatoes issue for a suburban middle class that wields immense political power when Canadians go to the polls.
But he’s not the only candidate hoping to appeal to inflation-weary Canadians against growing anxiety that things are about to get worse.
Karina Gould, a three-term MP and Cabinet minister, is selling herself as the product of a middle-class upbringing, a millennial mom of two kids — relatable bona fides that she insists equip her to take on affordability and housing crises.
Most pollsters have placed her third in the race, lagging behind Carney and former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland — but ahead of entrepreneur and former MP Frank Baylis.
Competing Visions
Gould was the youngest Cabinet minister ever appointed when she was named minister of democratic institutions in 2017 (at the age of 29). She later negotiated child care deals with provinces that substantially cut fees and eventually earned a promotion to government House leader — where she navigated a fractious Parliament.
She is popular among younger Liberals. If she wants a fighting chance at winning the race, she’ll have to distinguish herself among older voter cohorts.
On Tuesday evening, as the candidates mostly agreed with each other on stage, Gould pointedly challenged her competitors.
When Carney mentioned Canada’s housing crisis, Gould fired back: “I’m glad to hear my colleague talk about housing. This is one of the first times I’ve ever heard him talk about it.”
Strategic Moves and Reactions
Gould told reporters afterward that she was “wearing kid gloves” during Tuesday’s debate “between friends.” The real work, she said, lies ahead: “This is just a test run for the real debate that’s going to come in the election.”
Freeland’s shock December resignation helped ignite the race to replace Trudeau.
Freeland, a lead negotiator during NAFTA renegotiations during the first Trump administration, repeatedly invoked the president’s name Tuesday — as she has done since the launch of her campaign.
She promised to stand up to Trump with dollar-for-dollar tariffs and a list of retaliatory measures that includes C$200 billion worth of U.S. products.
“We are going to have targeted retaliation that exerts maximum pain in the U.S. and does minimum harm to us. We are going to hit Trump’s best friends. I’m going to put 100 percent tariffs on Tesla. I’m going to hit Wisconsin dairy. I’m going to hit Florida oranges,” Freeland said Tuesday.
“And you are going to see a stock market reaction.”
The Path Forward
Throughout the Liberal leadership race, candidates refrained from attacking one another, in an apparent attempt to show Canadians their party remains united.
But during Tuesday’s debate, Gould didn’t pull political punches aimed at Carney. She criticized his lack of political experience and challenged his preparedness for the job.
On Canada-U.S. relations, she offered a sharp counter to Carney’s economic credentials: “You can’t bring a calculator to a knife fight.”
